An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1969.
When the yield curve inverted in November 2022, he said it was a false signal.
AdvertisementWall Street has ramped up its soft-landing calls for 2024, but a renowned economic expert who popularized the most famous recession indicator in markets says to expect a downturn this year.
He said the inverted yield curve, in one sense, is a self-fulfilling prophecy as it signals to companies and investors that a slowdown is looming, which then alters spending and business behavior and ultimately leads to less activity.
Advertisement"It makes the yield curve causal," Harvey said.
Persons:
—, Campbell Harvey, Harvey, Jack Farley, he's
Organizations:
Service, Duke University, Federal
Locations:
Canadian